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Аналитика   The World Crisis - The Forecasts Come True

Экономика | суббота, 30 января 2010 в 18:00

The World Crisis - The Forecasts Come True

By V. Muntian

The ongoing crisis is global, complex and systematic. The G-20 leaders report that the critical point of the crisis is behind us, but that doesn’t reflect the real situation. Moreover, the latest facts published by Eurostat prove the opposite.

The crisis has begun in August 2007 in the US - the leader of the West and a country with the most powerful economic potential. The year 2009 ended with the US GDP falling by 2.5%, the GDP growth for Japan is negative 5.9%, Germany - negative 5%, and the EU countries - negative  4.1%. In fact, all 27 EU countries are experiencing a significant GDP drop. Not one of the countries mentioned above has reached a break even point. On the whole, the financial crisis has negatively affected 155 countries of the world, which constitute 77% of world’s States.

I am concerned that the critical point of the crisis is still ahead of us. According to my forecast, we will reach it in 6 years from now. The crisis will continue its agony, primarily due to the geoeconomic, geopolitical and geo-strategic contradictions.

Each country will fall and rise at its own pace. One thing is clear by now - the rich will emerge from the crisis even richer and the poor ones will become much poorer. Right now, though, a lot of rich people are facing the possibility of joining the poverty club.

The process of re-surfacing from the bottom will depend on the following factors: neo-liberal mentality, measures taken to retrain control over speculative capital, resistance to global challenges and probability of forecasting the future.

What we can expect to see in the nearest future may include the end of western supremacy, bewilderment of the leaders of developed countries and acknowledgement of the fact that no one can control the financial flaw. We will also see that the mono-polar world order hasn’t been successful and the USA will loose its hegemony by trying to preserve its military superiority.

Another version of the future is the collapse of the existing agricultural system accompanied by defaults, economic wars, mass unemployment and poverty. After that, there will be a crash of the world order, which will turn into chaos. It will immediately turn theoretical threats into real dangers accompanied by total degradation, criminality and a series of devastating military conflicts.

Dangers of technological, epidemic, food producing, energetic and ecological character will also reveal themselves. Before the final global collapse, the mankind should also expect climate changes on the planetary scale, which will cause droughts, floods, excessive heat and freezing.

One thing is clear - the mankind is not ready to face these dangers and the challenges may emerge from the most unexpected places. The scale will be horrifying and consequences - catastrophic, whereas the volumes of supplies and reserves will be insufficient. These events will take place at a speed, that won’t leave any time for preparation.

I wonder - who will grab the power during this important period for our civilization? It is not only our life, but also the life of the future generations that will depend on those who will govern us.

One possibility, is that the power may end up in the hands of criminal forces. That will be the result of our “head in the sand” style of politics during the times when criminal revolution is conquering the world at a rapid speed. The criminal world continues to successfully cultivate degradation of moral values, thanks to our own lack of principals and the infamous ”live and let live”

We spend 2/3 of our existing resources to support this criminal world. The world, which doesn’t produce anything of value but consumes everything, is rapidly becoming the modern superpower and our main reality.(2)

So why is the forecast so gloomy? Is our present so bad and is our future so horrible? And if that is true, must we not do something immediately to rectify the situation? This world is going to collapse due to its immoral attitude towards the humankind and the destruction of its natural environment. This is the world of lie, slavery, decadence and corruption.

This is why the mankind has to change its development course. Unfortunately, even at the beginning of the XXI century people haven’t become wiser nor have drawn any meaningful conclusions from their own historical development. Understanding the danger must create the stimulus and give us an opportunity to concentrate all our efforts and resources on the process of surviving the crisis. That seems to be the only solution left to our civilization. However, it seems that most of the population will be ready for the dramatic change of direction only when faced with the most terrible consequences. Only at that time people will realize that doing nothing
will lead to sure death for themselves and the entire civilization.

The current “caretaker” governments, which are appointed by the “grey cardinals” acting behind the scenes, do not realize or understand the reasons, volumes, depths and consequences of the ongoing situation. This situation is highly unusual for them, therefore they feel helpless, lost and scared by the future prospects. Instead of sharing the truth with their people and asking them for help, our governments have chosen the path of lie, which distorts and aggravates the situation even further.

We need to realize that the current politics have become a very complex structure consisting of many different levels. The successful maintenance and development of this structure requires application of very complex scientific resources. The new paradigm is caused by the challenges of changing times, shifting of civilization cycles, lack of resources, as well as conflicts, ecological and climate changes.

We must have a clear understanding of the fact that it is impossible to fight alone with such problems as global corruption and organized crime, which exist at the highest levels of our society.

Who is in charge today? It is neither the regular people, nor the accepted “law of the land” or the elected officials. It is not even the free market or the criminal clans. In today’s world the power is concentrated in the hands of unknown forces, which are united in their plot for domination. This plot is the main reason for the dramatic tragedy of our current situation.

It is too late to attempt to save the world’s economy, ecology and natural resources. It is time to save the world itself. This is why we must create a multilateral, not a multi-polar world. This must be the world where multiple sides do not oppose each other, but cooperate in order to defend the humankind from global dangers.

In order for the crisis to change the situation we need to create a new, more just and ecologically safe system. For this purpose we have to create special conditions and mechanisms, which will ensure that new people rise to power. People who will be prepared and responsible for the fate of humankind and the planet on the whole, people who will offer a new system. According to our belief, the NOOSPHERE economy must become such a system. We should not put our trust only in a will of accident or eloquent politicians. In the world of the NOOSPHERE economy, an intelligent and moral individual will never stay on the periphery, but will be in the center of decision making.

It is a big mistake to connect the crisis solely with finances, though some of the basic causes of the financial crisis were the “toxic” products of the banking system, the so-called bad loans. This crisis is also a crisis of spirituality, morality, mentality, and human consciousness. The whole human heritage will be destroyed if we come to the conclusion that Money is a symbol of power, which should be changed.

What we need is a new humanism, because a man is in the center of our future. First and foremost, the basic human values must be restored: spirituality, morality, honesty, truth, justice, sound family, man’s rights and freedoms. 

The NOOSPHERE economy is ready to provide these conditions.

I don’t want to get too deep into the comparative analysis of two economic systems. I’m sure the main cause of problems lies in human’s consciousness. Safety is primarily formed by a man’s thought and is destroyed by it as well. Therefore it is intolerable to underestimate the role, power and meaning of our thought. In the paradigm of the NOOSPHERE economy the main stress is placed on the power of mind.

But we must realize and bear in mind that in a capitalist system exists an enormous striving for profit and a hypertrophied advantage of material values over spiritual. And it is nearly impossible to stop this draconian striving, for if you cut off one head of the dragon, two new heads will grow instead. That is why there is an objective necessity to change the system and, most importantly, change the consciousness of the main element of that system - the human mind.

While the danger seems to be abstract, people will not invest neither resources nor time or energy into non-standard solutions. Resource is a secondary notion. The most important is to realize and to reveal the sense of the situation, where vital things are: perception of the world, level of consciousness, the way and depth of thinking.

As far as challenges of social sphere are concerned, the existing political elite claims that there is no need for the middle class in times of informational society. According to them, the middle class will become detrimental to this society. The challenge has been made, but nothing is being offered to resolve this problem, moreover no guarantees are given to the now-obsolete category of our society. In a capitalist system this challenge will in time turn into a real threat. This is very dangerous, because maintaining the virtual society is a lie in the name of gaining the power to exploit nations, peoples, and nature - anything and everything in the name of enriching oneself. Our current crisis is a perfect example of such lies.

The crisis is an undeclared war. It is inhumane to underestimate the volumes of crisis, give the suffering victims false recipes, make optimistic forecasts and embellish the reality. That is a great sin for those who enrich themselves with the help of other people’s grief.

The gap between poor and rich is continuously increasing, while billions of people are suffering, world resources are being irrationally used and embezzled. The load on the planet’s biosphere is increasing.

We also need to consider the influence of time and progress factors on the crisis itself. Because among other characteristics of progress there are: compression of terms and shortening of intervals between key events.(3) 

Currently 1.8 billion of people, i.e. every forth inhabitant of the planet, have to survive for less than 1 dollar a day, 1.2 billion are starving and tens of millions of people die annually from hunger and absence of drinking water. Under these conditions by the year 2025 every second person will be suffering from the shortage of drinking water. (4) It becomes clear that the main problems for humankind are: the shortage of clear air, drinking water and arable lands for cultivation.

Despite the threatening evaluations, someone makes the situation even worse by driving it to the international default, general social explosion and extensive military conflict which can turn into the world war. People must know the truth: if we don’t change the direction, the supremacy of chaos and catastrophes will come.

I can’t disagree with Vasiliy Semchera that this is also a crisis of capitalism, its values, questionable deals and crimes. While building a new, supposedly liberal world, the capitalists had created a virtual, deceitful world. In this world the material things are valued above spiritual, lie stands above the truth, profit and gain - above the honor and dignity, stealing and evil - above the good; divergence from the norm is above the norm itself, cult and values of perverts are above the values of sound people, crime is above the punishment, and the price of a criminal’s life - above that of a victim.

The fight for the currency printing press will be increased. Under the current conditions our world will not be able to use only one kind of currency. Therefore, it is very likely that the financial center will move from America to Eurasia.

The geopolitical rule of Sir Halford John Mackinder proclaims that the one who rules the central region - rules the island of the world (Eurasia). The one who rules the island - rules the world itself (5). This rule was relevant during the World War II, but it is even more relevant nowadays, during the financial crisis.

In the world of tomorrow, Eurasia will be the centre of economic activity. The continent occupies 36,2% of the mainland of the planet, its population is 4,8 billion, which is nearly 75% of the general population of the planet, more than 70% of the world energy resources are concentrated on the continent and more than 70% of the world GDP will be produced there.

The faster will China develop, the more confrontation between China and the USA will be. Accordingly, there will be fights for resources, regions, countries, and battles for who and when will win the sphere of influence. One should point out that China is rapidly becoming the world’s center of innovative production on the base of its own technologies.

You should not underestimate this confrontation, because it is not only a confrontation between two superpowers; it is also a confrontation between two systems, two ideologies, two continents, and two parts of the world. This is a confrontation between the West and the East. Will it be peaceful? The analysis of the situation indicates that it will not. There is a saying in the East: “the West has created a dangerous situation, which makes the whole world fall into darkness, but the sun sets on the West and it will rise on the East”.

The fight for the Eurasian continent and for supremacy will be very intense and we are already witnessing a few examples, such as the expansion of NATO, an attempt to create new countries (Kurdistan and Beludzhistan), the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is turning for the USA into its second Vietnam. Iran and Pakistan are eagerly waiting for their turn to get involved in these conflicts. New military bases are about to be created in the Middle East. All these events are just the elements of a general geo-strategic plan to conquer the world’s biggest continent - Eurasia.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is occupying the central area of the Eurasian space and has a significant potential. It occupies 40,7% of the Eurasian territory, includes 5.8% of its population and owns more than 40% of its energy resources.

Taking into account everything mentioned above, the CIS members will have to fight to protect their space. To that extent, we need some necessary means, which we do not yet posses. One thing can provide us with those means - a powerful, innovative economy, developed in one economic space. This is what we have to create urgently. Unfortunately, we, being on verge of danger, do not take any steps in the right direction.

Thus, having created the Strategy of Economic Development of CIS we have not implemented it. We are also delaying the implementation of the inter-governmental Innovative Cooperation program, hampering the creation of the powerful united economic region. The only thing we are actively doing is observing. However what may happen is that we will lose this economic space once and for all. The leaders of the Commonwealth countries must be reminded of the fact that we are running out of time!

If the political elites don’t have a strategic vision, their people don’t have the future.

In order to provide national security and protect vital interests of people, societies and countries of CIS, leaders of the countries and governments must pay paramount attention to the implementation of strategic documents for development of the CIS members. It is a pity that Ukraine has gotten itself out of these processes, having received nothing in return. It could have been a vanguard in many strategic directions, realized its goals and increased the level of well being of its people. All the rest is just a manipulation of people’s consciousness, someone else’s game to the detriment of the country. Isn’t it clear that we are much better prepared to fight against global challenges when we are united?

Now, lets talk about the scales of virtual economics.

The entire value of all national economies worldwide barely exceeds 120 - 130 trillion US dollars and the worldwide GDP is valued between 70 - 75 trillion USD. The US economy can be estimated to be worth 30 to 35 trillion USD and its GDP at around 14 trillion USD. It is also estimated that all secured assets around the world are valued at 2.1 - 2.5 quadrillion USD, while the non-secured assets, including insurance and the underground economy, are valued many times higher. This ratio goes beyond the reality, even the virtual reality.

One should pay attention to the factor of weakness. Under this factor the system behaves itself not in the same way as it does under the factor of power. According to the theory of security, the factor of weakness influences negatively the system of security. The forecasts officially claimed by me are becoming the reality not only in Ukraine, but also on the international level (see reference 6).

More than 10 years ago I predicted the start of the world financial crisis in the middle of 2007 and its starting location (USA). And it happened just so.

I predicted that the western model will become obsolete and that the power will pass from the West to the East. This is happening right now.

I predicted the fact that the USA will lose its supremacy, will weaken, which will tip the balance of forces in the entire world.

I said that the forecasts by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve, including Paulson, Greenspan, Bernanke and other financial experts and the Nobel Prize Laureates, are not realistic.

I predicted that the Economic Stimulus package and other measures offered by President Obama and approved by the US Congress are clearly insufficient. This program should have been expanded by 2.8 times, at the very least.

I predicted that the US budget deficit will increase by 4 times in 2009 and may return to the safe levels of 3% GDP not earlier than in 2013.

Indeed all of these predictions have come true. Thus, the US budget deficit has increased from 3.2% of GDP in 2008 to 12.9% in 2009. The US debt has grown in one year from 459 billion to 1.841 trillion USD. By 2013 the deficit is officially expected to be at 2.9% of GDP, or about 0.1% difference from my predictions.

I also predicted that despite the stimulus aid, the level of US unemployment will not decrease during the year but will increase from 7,8% to 10,2%, which is already more than the critical point. The process will not stop here. The level of unemployment in the US will continue to grow and we will have to forget the 3 million of additional workplaces, promised by Obama.

At the same time, I am very concerned about the high level of defense expenditures (741 billion USD in 2010 and 800 billion in 2013). A question occurs - what is it for? Especially, when we take into account the astronomical US debt, accompanied by the catastrophic financial and economic conditions. Could it be true that the financial elite has decided to use a military machine to capture the world and that Eurasia will be their first destination?

It is important to point out that neither Bush nor Obama’s administration have had a strategy of overcoming the crisis. This is the fact I repeatedly warned about in the media. The absence of the strategy and ignoring of the scientists who also warned about the danger has put the greatest country of the world on the verge of social collapse.

The mislead investors are loosing their homes, it is impossible to receive new loans, not only for the mortgage purposes but also for the small and medium-sized businesses. The manufacturing sector is shutting down, the unemployment is growing, access to credit resources is limited and the government is increasing taxes on its citizens and businesses. Poverty is increasing, the social programs are being eliminated, external and internal debt is growing catastrophically, but the military expenses, on the other hand, are increasing!

The US Dollar situation is obscure - the currency it will soon collapse, which will increase the society strain. As soon as the dollar collapses new threats will reveal themselves. Prices for the power resources will grow. Additionally, the inflationary pressures will increase.

We have to establish the fact that my forecasts come true. Perhaps the statistical data is not precisely accurate, but the dynamics and tendencies are something I was right about. I suppose the latest are more important for the development of a complex social economic system than the statistics. The prognosis comes true - population of the USA is in the state of fear of the upcoming day and begins to realize that its President has no influence on those processes.

Forecasts are valuable only when the right conclusions are done in time, when effective measures are taken not to allow the negative scenario to happen. However, if nothing is being done and people are nearly in the state of panic - only one conclusion can be made. The US, namely its government doesn’t have the real power to control its destiny. Most likely, the power belongs to the worldwide forces, which operate from behind the scenes and include the omnipresent international financial and banking interests.

The fact that the US is the economic and financial center of the world and has the greatest military potential along with nuclear weapons and other means of mass destruction, indicates a great danger for the humankind. They can use those destructive resources to achieve their goal of the world supremacy.

So how is Ukraine fighting with the crisis?

Instead of growing by the promised 0.4%, the Ukrainian GDP has decreased by 15% and its industrial sector has shrunk by 25%. The end result of all economic and financial activities in the country is negative.

Therefore, Ukraine has finished 2009 “in the red” and has accumulated additional loans, which will be very difficult and costly to repay. These credits were used to cover the most gaping holes, and not to modernize the country’s economy. As of October 1, 2009 the Ukrainian GDP was valued at 664 billion UAH and its gross foreign debt exceeded 200 billion UAH (104,376 billion USD).

According to the international criteria, the Ukrainian economy has already crossed critical levels of economic security and has gotten to the “deep crisis” zone.

Ukraine, a country with more than a thousand-year history, was currently ascribed according to international standards to the status of a “failed state”. Who ascribed us to that category? Those who were reforming the country, giving us advices and promises. Why the “failed state”? Because the country and its economy are being governed by the clans and oligarchy. We lack the system of governmental management which is capable of protecting our national interests. According to the main indicators of a country status, such as government, economy and defense, Ukraine has the lowest status of a “small or insignificant” state. According to “governmental parameter” we are too dependent on external influence as far as our governing decisions go.

According to economic parameter, the Ukrainian economy has too little of a significance in the world.

According to defense factor‚ we are too weak when compared to our neighbors in the region.

Hard to believe, this is a country which surprised not only Europe, but the whole world with its potential and level of spiritual and intellectual development.

As to economy, this is a country with unique possibilities. In 1970’s Ukraine took the 10th place after China and Japan when measured the corresponding GDP.

As far as defense is concerned, in 1990, Ukraine was in the first place in Europe and the third best worldwide in nuclear potential.

Foreign experts claimed Ukraine to have a bigger starting potential than Russia. And what are we up to today? Total lies of the government and unprecedented level of looting national treasure. Ukraine has the highest negative growth of GDP and production among other Commonwealth countries. Just by the results of 2009, the country stepped back for 5 years. Realistically, today's GDP of Ukraine amounts to just 60% of its 1990 figures.

It is hard to find another such government, which led its country to worse results that it had during the war. All that in peaceful time, having a unique potential and hardworking highly intellectual people. Who is going to pay for those 18 wasteful years?

Unfortunately the volume of import has lately exceeded the critical level of economic security. The country lacks a strategy of import replacement. We continue to follow the false way forced upon us by foreign experts and national reformers.

During of these years we were not able to reach the level of proper financing of our economy. While we are experiencing critical lack of financial resources, the hard currency continues to leave Ukraine at the rate of 1:2,08. Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to help and finance other countries!

Additionally, the Ukrainian government continues to take additional loans from international financial organizations, while ignoring macro-economic indicators and financial safety of the country. The government is clearly lacking a strategy for economic development of Ukraine. It uses the taxpayers’ money to support commercial banks and to recapitalize their day-to-day activities, thereby increasing the possibility and timing of the financial default of the entire country. Real threat to Ukraine is the total corruption and the underground economy. Our government and population should change the mentality. We shouldn’t let alien values be forced on us. The government should take the responsibility for bringing up harmonically developed personality.

Steps Ukraine has to take immediately:

  1. Stop wasting of the capital, brain power and economically active population;
  2. Take immediate measures to prevent demographic catastrophe;
  3. Work out a program to deal with an old industrial potential of the country and carry out the second industrialization.
  4. Formulate a strategy of ensuring the consumer’s request;
  5. Build up chains of technological processes and step on the way of innovative development in the sphere Ukraine can be competitive in.
  6. Ukraine has to invest into the human resources and science. The investment should help to bring-up the new generation. It is the hope of our future as the crisis will be long-lasting. Under existing conditions people are being silent and the country is simply dying.

Ukraine is currently going through a very hard period and we have to put all efforts to prevent the loss of our country, till we still have a chance and opportunities to do so. No miracle will happen. We must only hope on our own forces.

So our main task is to wind up the crisis of governing system. We have to honestly admit, that we ourselves created the toxic atmosphere in society. We need to offer this society an ideology of national revival, a program and strategy of Ukrainian development in present-day conditions.

We have to ensure integrity of political and economic goals, aimed at saving our country. It is high time we pass from degradation to development! The main conclusion of the forecast is that the world we see today has nothing to with something we will see tomorrow. Will the world of tomorrow be better than this one? I doubt it.

So how do we preserve our world without driving it to devastation?

First of all, people must be told the truth, showing the real causes of crisis and real goals. I think that we still have a chance. But the time given to realize this chance is running out and, therefore, we must start immediately. Our civilization can overcome the crisis through clear consciousness and bright human mind assisted by the NOOSPHERICAL model of development.



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